India and China will build up their carbon burning rapidly as their economies grow. As 2.5 billion people get closer to the living standards of the 0.6 billion richer Americans and Europeans, so there will be a massive increase in CO2 output. No Western political leader is going to tell poor Indians or Chinese they are not allowed a fridge, car and running hot water as their economies improve because the planet’s carbon budget will not allow it.

No conceivable amount of state aid to the poorer countries at Copenhagen will change that situation. Failure to address and resolve this moral conundrum lies at the core of why Copenhagen will not in its own terms succeed.